November 17, 2025 •Peter Klingelhofer
Key Events: US government shutdown finally ends
President Trump signed a temporary funding bill on Wednesday that brought the longest US government shutdown to an end. Markets had largely anticipated this outcome after the Senate passed the legislation late Monday, clearing the way for Wednesday’s House vote.
The shutdown had minimal impact on US asset prices, as investors remained focused on a robust earnings third-quarter earnings reporting season.
Market Review: Mixed and volatile
US stocks ended the week mixed amidst volatile trading. The Dow and the S&P 500 showed slight gains while the tech heavy Nasdaq and small and mid-caps slid. International markets delivered solid performance.
The aggregate bond index fell as Treasury yields rose. Expectations for a rate cut in December fell sharply on the back of cautious comments from Fed officials.1
Outlook: Strong earnings today, growing AI concerns tomorrow
Third-quarter 2025 earnings have significantly exceeded expectations, with year-over-year growth accelerating to its strongest pace since 2021 (Deutsche Bank / Financial Times).2
However, investor enthusiasm is increasingly tempered by concerns over the massive debt-financed build-out of AI infrastructure. Notable examples include:
- Oracle and Meta, both of which have outlined highly aggressive multi-year capex plans, saw their shares decline 20% and 17%, respectively, since the start of Q4.3
- SoftBank’s announcement last week that it fully exited its remaining Nvidia stake to redeploy capital into OpenAI triggered a double-digit drop in its own stock over the subsequent three trading days.4
These moves highlight growing unease about extended depreciation schedules for AI-related investments among the Magnificent 7, as well as the risk of rapid technological obsolescence eroding future earnings power.
While near-term corporate fundamentals remain supportive, the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the AI investment boom reinforces the importance of maintaining a disciplined, well-diversified multi-asset approach as we head into 2026 and beyond.
Q3 earnings reports offset negative factors during the shutdown
Source: Financial Times and Syz Private Banking
OneAscent Navigator Outlook: November 2025
This material is intended to be educational in nature , and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice. The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own. Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors. OneAscent can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.[5]
[1] Source: Syz Private Banking, November 15, 2025.
[2] Source: Deutsche Bank, Financial Times and Syz Private Banking.
[3] Source: Bloomberg data.
[4] Source: Bloomberg story “SoftBank Swaps Nvidia for OpenAI – Is the Hardware Play Done?”, November 12, 2025, by Surbhi Jain.
[5] Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggregate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield
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