Key Events: Government shutdown? No problem
The US government shutdown continued, but some data was still released – US CPI came in slightly below expectations, affirming the Fed’s trajectory of cutting interest rates1. Meanwhile the US appeared to make some progress in trade talks with China.
Market Review: New highs
Markets were in a buoyant mood this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hitting new highs. They were joined by Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, as global optimism was fueled by strong earnings momentum and expectations of central bank rate cuts.
Outlook: Flying (partially) blind
Statistically speaking, we’re in the dark. With the government shutdown now stretching into its fourth week, many of the most trusted economic indicators -jobs, retail sales, housing starts — remain unavailable. In their absence, investors have turned to real-time proxies like credit card spending, job postings, and corporate earnings to gauge the health of the economy. The picture they paint is mixed.
On one hand, earnings have been strong, and inflation is moderating. On the other hand, rising credit stress, softening labor demand in private surveys, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. Additionally, the “K-shaped” economy causes concern; while owners of financial assets thrive, much of the economy is on a weaker footing.
In this data vacuum, narratives can shift quickly. That’s why we continue to emphasize a disciplined, diversified approach. Markets may be flying without instruments, but long-term investors don’t need perfect visibility to stay on course. We remain confident that a portfolio grounded in valuation, quality, and balance is the best way to navigate uncertainty, especially when the usual signposts are missing.
The K-shaped economy: Stocks are becoming more and more important to those that own them, making up a larger portion of wealth than ever before
But that wealth continues to be more and more concentrated as the top 1% own more than 1/3 of financial assets
OneAscent Navigator Outlook: October 2025
This material is intended to be educational in nature , and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice. The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own. Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors. OneAscent can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.[2]
[1] Source: Bloomberg: Bureau of Labor Statistics
[2] Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggregate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield
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