November 27, 2023 •Nathan Willis
Key Events: Cease Fire
A cease fire began in Gaza as Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, all women and children, were released; the threat of a broader war remains.
Consumers pulled out their wallets on “Black Friday” – both in-store and online sales were strong.[1]
Market Review: Stocks drift higher
November’s stock surge continued, albeit more modestly, on limited news and typically low holiday-week trading volumes.
Bonds gained as inflation fears continue to recede.
Outlook: No Fear!
One of Wall Street’s most well-known sayings is “the stock market climbs a wall of worry”. Today, it seems, the worry is gone. The VIX[2]has dropped to the lowest levels since before the pandemic. Wall street seems confident that the Fed will achieve a soft landing, despite the fact that it has achieved this feat only once in the last 60 years.[3]
While it may materialize, we are not betting the house on a soft landing. OneAscent portfolios remain diversified, with exposure to several overlooked areas of the market which have experienced modest recent returns, but which have a high margin of safety and the potential for solid long-term returns.
Wall Street “Fear gauge” at lowest levels since before the Pandemic[4]
Navigator Outlook: November 2023
This material is intended to be educational in nature,[5] and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice. The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own. Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors. OneAscent can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
[1] Source: forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanverdon/2023/11/25/a-merry-black-friday-for-retail-store-traffic-and-online-sales-up/?sh=6c98f8813005
[2] Source: The VIX is the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options.
[3] Source: “Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965–2022”, Alan Blinder, Journal of Economic Perspectives. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.37.1.101
[4] Source: Bloomberg Data
[5] Source: Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggretate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield
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