Key Events: Moving towards reopening
While official US government data was delated due to the shutdown, non-government data showed positive employment data and an expanding services economy, but a slowing manufacturing economy and a decline in consumer sentiment weighed on sentiment.
Meanwhile the Senate advanced a spending measure that moves the government closer to reopening.
Market Review: AI spending questions
Markets endured a turbulent week as the market began to question frothy AI spending projections. Stocks fell across the board, led by a 4% decline in technology stocks, while bonds held steady as the Fed is expected to cut rates further in the coming year.1
Outlook: Bearista mugs and the K-shaped economy
Starbucks holiday lineup illustrates K-shaped, “haves” vs. “have-not”, dynamic. The “Bearista” mug was released last week and demand quickly overwhelmed supply, leading to absurdly high prices on sites like Ebay (see the listing pictured below).
This amusing anecdote illustrates the serious reality of the have” vs “Have-not” economy. While both stocks and coffee prices have tripled over the last ten years, incomes have only gone up 50%.2 The “haves” are doing great; the second chart below illustrates that analysts are raising stock earnings estimates.
This dynamic implies a certain level of economic instability. An economy that benefits all is more stable than one where many are left behind; the tangible risk today is that if the labor market weakens further, consumer spending – a major driver of the US economy – may decline as many in the lower income ranges are left behind. Given this uncertainty, we remain confident that a well-diversified portfolio is the best way to navigate the coming years.
The K-shaped economy: If you don’t own stocks, you probably can’t afford this
coffee cup3
But If you own stocks, the outlook is positive
OneAscent Navigator Outlook: November 2025
This material is intended to be educational in nature , and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client. These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice. The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own. Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors. OneAscent can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.[4]
[1] Source: Bloomberg
[2] Source: Bloomberg
[3] Source: Ebay
[4] Market Returns reference the following indices: Large Cap – S&P 500, Mid Cap Growth – Russell Midcap growth, Mid Cap Value – Russell Midcap Value, Small Cap – Russell 2000, Developed – MSCI EAFE, Emerging – MSCI Emerging Markets, Aggregate – Bloomberg US Aggregate, High Yield – Bloomberg High Yield
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